Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 0.009411 0.010627 0.011942 0.013471 0.015199 0.017093 0.019327
2025-12-07 0.007190 0.008798 0.010682 0.013054 0.015963 0.019421 0.023847
2025-12-14 0.006016 0.007776 0.009954 0.012850 0.016609 0.021330 0.027728
2025-12-21 0.005118 0.006918 0.009246 0.012485 0.016885 0.022671 0.030884
2025-12-28 0.004713 0.006623 0.009192 0.012910 0.018167 0.025362 0.036002
2026-01-04 0.004329 0.006299 0.009041 0.013152 0.019177 0.027725 0.040837
2026-01-11 0.004029 0.006051 0.008958 0.013456 0.020271 0.030261 0.046112
2026-01-18 0.003667 0.005669 0.008633 0.013358 0.020736 0.031885 0.050133
2026-01-25 0.003376 0.005364 0.008388 0.013343 0.021306 0.033683 0.054542
2026-02-01 0.003077 0.005015 0.008040 0.013126 0.021519 0.034920 0.058134
2026-02-08 0.002878 0.004807 0.007890 0.013206 0.022205 0.036944 0.063159
2026-02-15 0.002661 0.004547 0.007633 0.013080 0.022527 0.038380 0.067289
2026-02-22 0.002540 0.004444 0.007632 0.013394 0.023639 0.041259 0.074220
2026-03-01 0.002304 0.004121 0.007233 0.012986 0.023457 0.041894 0.077232
2026-03-08 0.002127 0.003887 0.006966 0.012784 0.023615 0.043122 0.081400
2026-03-15 0.001944 0.003625 0.006627 0.012420 0.023441 0.043726 0.084436
2026-03-22 0.001890 0.003598 0.006710 0.012843 0.024764 0.047188 0.093217
2026-03-29 0.001816 0.003524 0.006699 0.013084 0.025754 0.050092 0.101146
2026-04-05 0.001754 0.003470 0.006721 0.013386 0.026886 0.053350 0.110054
2026-04-12 0.001649 0.003321 0.006548 0.013289 0.027208 0.055031 0.115869
2026-04-19 0.001561 0.003201 0.006422 0.013274 0.027694 0.057073 0.122601
2026-04-26 0.001459 0.003042 0.006207 0.013058 0.027741 0.058211 0.127491
2026-05-03 0.001395 0.002958 0.006136 0.013137 0.028417 0.060709 0.135545